Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.291907 1.369342 1.450066 1.540697 1.639857 1.745321 1.866325
2026-01-25 1.190034 1.301442 1.423088 1.566579 1.732256 1.918825 2.146640
2026-02-01 1.093531 1.220078 1.362464 1.536026 1.743928 1.987647 2.299038
2026-02-08 1.012658 1.146828 1.301238 1.494247 1.732178 2.020186 2.402060
2026-02-15 0.960786 1.102354 1.268545 1.480994 1.749800 2.084965 2.545198
2026-02-22 0.924375 1.073130 1.250936 1.482980 1.783812 2.169624 2.717717
2026-03-01 0.880828 1.032261 1.215917 1.459667 1.782089 2.205470 2.824655
2026-03-08 0.834278 0.985140 1.170261 1.419348 1.754325 2.202936 2.875358
2026-03-15 0.804978 0.958119 1.148375 1.408126 1.763702 2.250186 2.999426
2026-03-22 0.792472 0.951598 1.152033 1.430213 1.818797 2.363730 3.230176
2026-03-29 0.771862 0.933572 1.139585 1.429429 1.841233 2.430976 3.394889
2026-04-05 0.759527 0.925652 1.139836 1.445575 1.887953 2.536111 3.628340
2026-04-12 0.740345 0.908684 1.128166 1.445785 1.913413 2.613855 3.830175
2026-04-19 0.730690 0.904028 1.132916 1.469373 1.974797 2.751689 4.150064
2026-04-26 0.703838 0.875131 1.103112 1.441541 1.956437 2.761115 4.243787
2026-05-03 0.675208 0.842868 1.067435 1.403444 1.919970 2.738228 4.275463
2026-05-10 0.656960 0.824210 1.050034 1.391350 1.923035 2.780238 4.432135
2026-05-17 0.644317 0.812813 1.042342 1.393162 1.947812 2.859970 4.669874
2026-05-24 0.625120 0.791694 1.020045 1.371878 1.934125 2.872283 4.774522
2026-05-31 0.602090 0.764597 0.988351 1.335034 1.893219 2.834160 4.771674
2026-06-07 0.588272 0.750087 0.974355 1.324772 1.895407 2.872430 4.932629
2026-06-14 0.584184 0.749169 0.979973 1.344967 1.949136 3.007305 5.318579
2026-06-21 0.574248 0.739596 0.972531 1.344250 1.967246 3.077583 5.570583